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Sir David Omand: The pioneer of the Omand Cycle of Intelligence Assessment

Tunde Abiola by Tunde Abiola
March 3, 2025
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Security Series: Part 2

In the United Kingdom, one man whose name rings a bell when we talk of security, intelligence and coordination is Sir David Omand. He was the first UK Security and Intelligence Coordinator after the 9/11 attacks, overseeing counterterrorism efforts and intelligence coordination. Before that, he was the Director of GCHQ (the UK’s signals intelligence agency) from 1996 to 1997.

As the UK’s first Security and Intelligence Coordinator (effectively a National Security Adviser) from 2002 to 2005, Sir David Omand played a pivotal role in reshaping Britain’s national security architecture, particularly in response to the post-9/11 threat environment.

Omand is known for his contributions to intelligence analysis, cybersecurity, and crisis management.

As security adviser Sir Omand is renowned for developing a coherent counterterrorism and intelligence coordination framework in the UK. He enhanced collaboration between MI5 (domestic security), MI6 (foreign intelligence), GCHQ (signals intelligence), and law enforcement agencies. His leadership improved cross-agency intelligence sharing and operational coordination, which were critical in countering terrorist threats.

I should emphasize here that one critical role of the National Security Adviser is to coordinate. I have said this time after time. He is the sponge that picks up all the intelligence and extracts the sense in it.

For me, the most consequential legacy of Sir David Omand is his designing of the Omand Cycle. The Omand Cycle, is a framework for structured intelligence assessment that emphasizes the importance of objectivity, political judgment, and ethical considerations.

The Elements of the Omand Cycle

The cycle typically consists of six key stages, each designed to improve the reliability of intelligence and its impact on decision-making:

1. Situational Awareness – Gathering raw intelligence from multiple sources.
2. Pattern Recognition – Identifying trends, and key patterns to determine what is significant.
3. Hypothesis Generation – Developing possible explanations for the observed intelligence.
4. Critical Challenge & Testing – Subjecting the hypotheses to rigorous scrutiny, questioning assumptions, and avoiding biases.
5. Decision Advantage – Presenting intelligence insights to policymakers.
6. Action & Review – Implementing decisions based on intelligence and continuously reassessing their effectiveness.

Reading from the above you would appreciate the vigor that the Omand Cycle recommends in intelligence gathering, analysis and how it influences decisions making.

As a National Security Adviser, the President, and the government in fact relies on the information and advice you bring forward to make decisions that affect the lives of people. Your advice must be fool-proof. It must be thorough, with biases avoided.

Written by Unilag Efiwe.

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